Reasons China will rule Technology
China’s push to take over global technology leadership is relentless. It wants to lead in computing, semiconductors, research and development, and clean energy. It is accelerating science investment as the U.S. retreats.
China may be planning a moon base. Surprised? Don’t be. It will soon have a manned space station. It is investing heavily in quantum technologies and it wants to be first to build an exascale supercomputer.
In 2010, Computerworld looked at “Five reasons why China will rule tech.” Here's an update, and the case for China has grown stronger.
1. China’s big science ambitions include a moon base
In the 1950s, the U.S. considered establishing a 12-man Army base on the moon by 1965. The idea was too ambitious for the time and was dropped. Meanwhile, China has set its sights on a permanent lunar base.
Richard Fisher, a senior fellow of Asian military affairs at the International Assessment and Strategy Center, sees the possibility. “The Chinese will be using the moon for a range of military purposes, and thus it is necessary for the United States to go there.” He made the comment at a hearing last month of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission.
China intends to launch its first space station module, “Tianhe-1,” next year, with the goal of having a completely assembled space station in 2022.
A Chinese lunar base is a long way off. China has targeted 2036 for landing on the moon. But what these efforts illustrate is how China thinks big and long term. China has established a goal of becoming a global scientific power by 2050, according to a report prepared for the Economic and Security Review Commission in 2011.
President Donald Trump’s administration includes more funds for space exploration, but would do so only by cutting other science efforts at NASA. The space agency’s overall 2018 budget would be cut by about 1%.
But the moonbase is just one science effort by China out of many.
Another priority for China is quantum computing, particularly in cryptography.
“The U.S. remains at the forefront of quantum information science, but its lead has slipped considerably as other nations, China in particular, have allocated extensive funding to basic and applied research,” said John Costello, a senior analyst at Flashpoint, a cybersecurity firm, in testimony presented at a U.S.-China hearing on Thursday.
“Consequently, Chinese advances in quantum information science have the potential to surpass the United States,” Costello said.
2. China wants to win in high-performance computing
U.S. scientists -- including those at the National Security Agency -- believe China will soon lead the world in supercomputing.
“National security requires the best computing available, and loss of leadership in high performance computing (HPC) will severely compromise our national security,” wrote NSA and Energy Department scientists in a recent report.
China sees supercomputing as a race. It recently accelerated development of exascale systems and expects to produce a prototype as earlier as the end of this year, ahead of the U.S.
China has the world’s fastest supercomputer at about 125 petaflops built with its own chips. A petaflop system can perform one quadrillion arithmetic operations per second. An exascale system is 1,000 petaflops, and China is on track to produce a system well before the U.S.
Trump’s proposed 2018 budget may cut funding for U.S. supercomputer development.
3. China is attacking U.S. semiconductor dominance
For all its investment and advances, China is at least one and a half generations behind state-of-the-art semiconductors, according to a White House report released in January by President Barack Obama, just days before Trump took office. It was written with industry cooperation.
The report provides insights into criticisms that Trump leveled at China over trade practices. In its push to be first, China isn’t playing fair, the report states.
To help boost its industry, the report claimed that the Chinese government subsidizes semiconductor production, which can lower product cost and threaten direct competitors. It also “places conditions on access to its market” to drive domestic production and “technology transfer” -- requiring foreign firms -- if they want access to China’s market -- to share their technology. Theft is another means of acquiring technology, the report says.
“In 2014, the Chinese Government announced that it would spend $150 billion to expand the share of Chinese-made integrated circuits in its market from 9 percent to 70 percent by 2025,” said former U.S. Commerce Secretary Penny Pritzker, in a speech last November. “To put that figure into perspective, $150 billion is roughly half of all worldwide semiconductor sales last year,” she said.
The Trump administration supports a hardline on China and its semiconductors activities. But Trump may differ from Obama in one key area.
Part of the Obama administration counterattack to the China semiconductor advances was to recommend a series of “moonshots” -- projects to accelerate U.S. innovation.
One moonshot called for advances in “modeling and simulation” development -- a product of supercomputing development. But if Trump cuts supercomputing investment, it may help China advance its semiconductor agenda.
4. China plans to exceed the U.S. in R&D
China’s investment in R&D is rising so rapidly that the country is expected to surpass the U.S. in overall spending by 2020. This doesn’t necessarily mean that China is doing a better job at innovation. Other measures, such as patents registered in multiple countries, continue to point to the U.S. as the innovation leader.
Nonetheless, China’s R&D investment growth was called “remarkable” last year by the National Science Foundation. “Between 2003 and 2013, China ramped up its R&D investments at an average of 19.5 percent annually, greatly exceeding that of the U.S.” the NSF reported.
China’s innovation ambitions include leading the world on clean energy. It invested nearly $103 billion in renewables in 2015, up 17% over 2014. The “U.S. is in second place, but well behind, at $44 billion,” according to a recent report by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis. The Trump budget would cut this investment.
5. China’s leadership is focused on science
During the campaign, Trump said he supported investment in science, but his proposed 2018 budget cuts science spending.
The cuts are so deep they “threaten our nation’s ability to advance cures for disease, maintain our technological leadership, ensure a more prosperous energy future, and train the next generation of scientists and innovators to address the complex challenges we face today and in the future,” said Rush Holt, the CEO of the American Association for the Advancement of Science.
Silicon Valley leaders warned before Trump took office that he would be a "disaster for innovation."
Trump may be hoping that deregulation, tax cuts and other private sector incentives will spur innovation. But the government has always played a role in basic science research and big science projects, such as exascale computers, that are too expensive for the private sector.
China’s investment in science is not a given and economic forces could derail its plans. But for now, this country sees science investment as critical to long-term prosperity.
“Innovation is the primary force guiding development,” said Xi Jinping, the president of the People’s Republic of China, in January at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. “We need to relentlessly pursue innovation,” Xi said.
中国推动采取全球技术领导地位是无情的。 它想要率先在计算、半导体生产、研究和开发、和清洁的能源。 这是加快科学投资美国的务虚会。
中国可能计划的月球基地。 奇怪吗? 不要被。 它将会很快就有了载人空间站。 这是投入了大量的人力物力在量子技术和它想要第一次构建一种计算的超级计算机。
在2010年 《 Computerworld 》看 “五个原因中国将统治技术。” 这里的更新, 以及中国的发展壮大。
1。 中国的大科学的野心包括月球基地
在 1950s, 美国考虑建立 12 人的军队的月球基地的 1965。 当时的设想是野心太大的时间和被丢弃。 与此同时, 中国已为其景点的永久性的月球基地。
理查德·费希尔的一名高级研究员亚洲军事事务的国际评估和战略中心, 看到的可能性。 “中国将以月球为一定范围的军事用途, 因此, 美国有必要到那儿去。” 他的评论在一次听证会最后一个月的美中经济与安全审查委员会。
【对此发表评论的故事, 请访问 Computerworld 的 Facebook 页面。 ]
中国打算推出自己的第一次空间站模块、“天河-1”、下一年的目标是在一种完全组装空间站 在2022年。
中国的月球基地是一条漫长的路要走。 中国已有针对性的 2036 降落在月球上。 但这些努力表明是如何中国认为大的和长期的。 中国已建立的目标是成为全球性的科学力量, 2050 根据编写的报告, 经济和安全审查委员会 在2011年。
主席(以英语发言唐纳德·特朗普的管理包括更多的资金用于探索空间, 但这样做只是通过削减其他科学的努力在美国航天局。 空间机构的整体 2018 的财政预算将被削减了约 1%。
但 moonbase 的仅仅是一种科学的努力, 中国的很多。
另一项优先事项是量子计算的, 特别是在加密技术。
“美国仍然是站在最前列的量子信息科学, 但它的领导有很大的下滑, 其他国家, 特别是中国, 已拨出大量的资金, 基础研究和应用研究,” 约翰说 Ｌ Ｏ 的高级分析师热点、网络安全公司提出的证据, 在美国的中国的听证会在星期四。
“因此, 中国的进步在量子信息科学有潜力超过美国,” 科斯特罗说。
2。 中国要想赢在高性能计算的
美国科学家们——包括那些在国家安全机构————认为中国将很快成为全球最大的超级计算能力。
“国家安全需要的最佳的计算可用性和损失的领导在高性能计算(HPC)将严重损害我们的国家安全” 写信给 NSA 和能源部的科学家在最近的一份报告。
中国的超级计算竞赛。 最近它加速发展的计算系统和期望产生一种原型作为较早结束的这一年, 在美国和
中国拥有世界上最快的超级计算机约 125 千万亿次的运算速度内置有自己的芯片。 一 petaflop 系统可以执行以下一项达 12200 算术每秒的操作数。 一种计算系统 1,000 千万亿次的运算速度、和中国在生产系统中之前的美国
王牌的建议 2018 预算可能削减经费美国超级计算机的发展。
3。 中国是攻击美国半导体霸主地位
为其所有的投资及垫款, 中国至少有一半的后面几代先进的半导体、根据白宫公布的由 1月 总统奥巴马几天前的王牌。 这是写与业界的合作。
该报告提供了深入的批评, 王平在中国的贸易做法。 在其推为第一, 中国是不公平的国家报告。
为帮助提升其行业的报告称, 中国政府补贴半导体的生产, 可以降低产品成本和威胁的直接竞争对手。 它还"地方的条件进入市场的"驱动器的国内生产和 “技术转让” 的————规定外国公司——如果他们想要进入中国市场--分享它们的技术。 盗窃是另一种方式获取技术
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